In this article, I will dive into some early ADP trends from March drafts, highlighting players I’m higher on and lower on in my rankings for the upcoming fantasy football season
Data comes from PFF, Rotoviz, Pro-Football Reference, Stathead, rbsdm.com
Values
Davante Adams
Early ADP 42nd overall, WR19, my ranking 28th overall, WR13
While Adams’ efficiency hasn’t been as high as in previous seasons (2023 & 2024), his YPRR (Yards Per Route Run) over the last two seasons remains strong at 2.00, a figure that is still very impressive.. Adams’ ability to earn targets still remains elite with a 30% TPRR rate over the last 2 seasons and outside of Puca Nacua, no one else on the Rams has the ability to earn targets at a high rate so this will be a very concentrated passing attack between the two of them. Where Adams excels is inside the 10 yd line, since 2017 no player in the NFL has seen more targets (89) and caught more TDs (43) than Adams. The departures of Cooper Kupp and Demarcus Robinson have freed up over 40% of the Rams’ targets inside the 10-yard line I fully expect Adams to command a significant portion of these available targets.
Omarion Hampton
Early ADP 57th overall, RB19, my ranking 35th overall, RB13
Heading into the combine, the RB2 spot in this year’s rookie class, behind Ashton Jeanty, was wide open. However, in Indianapolis, Hampton solidified his position as the consensus RB2. He posted an 89th percentile speed score, 90th percentile freak score and 96th percentile explosion score, good enough for a 9.70 RAS.
Hampton is now widely expected to go in the 1st round of the draft and since 2015 there have been 13 RBs drafted in the 1st round of the NFL draft and 9 of them have finished with more than 14 PPR/Gm, 6 or them finished with more than 16 PPR/Gm and Barkely and Elliott finished with 24 PPR/Gm and 21 PPR/Gm, respectively. Like most rookies, Hampton’s fantasy production is expected to be backloaded, with his best games likely coming in the second half of the season when it matters most for fantasy managers. I like the odds of Hampton just paying off at cost across the whole season but l would be even more excited to have him on my teams as we go into the fantasy playoffs.
Jakobi Meyers
Early ADP 81st overall, WR41, my ranking 59th overall, WR33
Meyers may not be a prototypical WR1, but he has proven to be a reliable WR2 both in real life and fantasy. Since moving to Vegas, Meyers has finished as the WR19 and WR24 with 42% of his games finishing as a WR2 or better. This is despite catching passes from Jimmy Garoppolo, Brian Hoyer, Aidan O’Connell, Gardner Minshew and Desmond Ridder. The underwhelming QB play Meyers has had to suffer through cannot be understated.
The Raiders decision to trade for Geno Smith is a monumental upgrade on what they have been rolling out at the position over the last 2 seasons. Since taking over as QB for the Seahwks in 2022, only Jared Goff (71.7%) has been a more accurate passer than Geno (71.5%) and Geno is 1st in CPOE, minimum 700 plays.
With Chip Kelly now serving as the offensive coordinator, expect the Raiders to operate at a faster tempo, running more plays per game, getting off plenty of plays within a game and with Geno distributing a much more accurate ball than Meyers has been accustomed to in Vegas, he should be able to rack up plenty of receptions and PPR points. All the above also applies to Brock Bowers who l feel should be a 1st round pick and the 1.01 pick in 1QB TE premium leagues.
Fades
Garrett Wilson
Early ADP 26th overall, WR13, my ranking 52nd overall, WR26
Wilson has yet to fully live up to his college profile and draft capital. His best season came in his rookie year when he posted a modest 1.85 YPRR, since then he has been below 1.7 YPRR. Some this inefficiency has to be attributed to the murders row of QBs the Jets have rolled out during Wilson’s career so far, but as things stand today his starting QB this year will be Justin Fields who has only supported 1 WR to have a top 12 season at the position (DJ Moore 2023). Wilson and Fields did play together at Ohio State, so there’s potential for instant chemistry. However, Wilson’s breakout junior season came with C.J. Stroud at the helm
Joe Burrow
Early ADP 52nd overall, QB5, my ranking 64th overall, QB5
The positional rankings here are equal, but the overall ranking is where we differ and l have a hard time drafting a pocket passer within 1 round of mobile QBs. Burrow is coming off a superb season where he posted a career best 6.6% TD rate and career best passing yards per game. Burrow’s career TD rate is 5.5% so we should not expect him to post back to 6.6% TD seasons. As a pocket passer, Burrow’s fantasy value hinges on above-average efficiency and high passing volume to justify his cost
Aaron Jones
Early ADP 66th overall, RB22, my ranking 87th overall, RB27
Jones is coming off the heaviest workload of his career (306 total touches), which coincided with a career-worst rushing success rate and his lowest yards per rush attempt. He’s now going into his aged 30 season so we should not be expecting a bounceback in efficiency at his age if he is to maintain this kind of workload. Fortunately for Jones, the Vikings traded for Jordan Mason, who is expected to handle much of the rushing workload, allowing Jones to focus on his role as a receiving back, which he still excels at. But fantasy football is about opportunity and touchdowns and as a rusher, Jones could only amass 5 rushing TDs last season despite a career high in rush attempts. With Mason coming in, he is expected to be the goal line back for the Vikings this year.
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