By Mike Bland @TheFFOffice el_chunko
With 32 drafts now completed in the inaugural Best Ball Europe Summer Slam tournament, I’ll be analyzing the first five rounds—highlighting the players I’m higher and lower on compared to their current ADP
Rounds 1-5;
I’m not actively fading any players in Round 1 this year. In fact, I believe there are 16 players who have strong enough profiles to warrant first-round consideration in a typical season. However, within that group, I do have distinct positional rankings that differ slightly from consensus. Notably, I have CeeDee Lamb ranked as my WR2 and Jahmyr Gibbs as my RB1.
In Round 2, I believe De’Von Achane represents one of the best early-round values at his current ADP. I have him ranked 12th overall and as my RB4. The trade of Jonnu Smith to the Steelers could open up additional short-area targets, further boosting Achane’s already impressive receiving upside. I wouldn’t be surprised if he eclipsed 100 receptions this season.
Tua Tagovailoa has publicly emphasized the need to get the ball out even faster this offseason—despite already leading the league with a 2.3-second average time to throw in 2023 (for reference, Matthew Stafford ranked second at 2.62 seconds). This quick-release approach aligns perfectly with Achane’s skill set as a dynamic receiver out of the backfield.
Achane’s ceiling is closely tied to Tua’s health, but in best ball formats, we’re targeting upside, not floor—so the injury risk is a secondary concern. As the Rotoviz table below highlights, the splits between Achane’s production with and without Tua are significant. If Tua stays healthy for a full 17-game season, as he did in 2023, Achane has a legitimate path to finishing as the overall RB1.
In Round 3, there’s only one player inside the Top 100 picks across all formats that I’ve yet to draft—Garrett Wilson. I recently published an article questioning whether Wilson could be a potential fantasy trap in 2025. While I encourage you to check out the full piece, the crux of my concern lies in his efficiency and whether Justin Fields can deliver the accuracy needed for Wilson to return value at his current ADP. In my rankings, I have Wilson pegged as an early fourth-round pick and WR20, whereas his consensus ADP places him in the early third round as WR15.
Rashee Rice is currently my highest-ranked player relative to ADP in the early rounds of drafts. I have him ranked 20th overall and as my WR12, while his consensus ADP sits around 30th overall as WR16. He’s also my most-drafted wide receiver in this tournament, appearing on 29% of my rosters, and 20% across my entire draft portfolio. The upside case for Rice is a simple one, from the Chiefs’ Week 10 bye in Rashee Rice’s rookie season through Week 3 of his sophomore year, he was on pace for a 17-game stat line of approximately 149 receptions, 1,347 yards, and 7 touchdowns, totaling around 295 PPR points—numbers that would justify a late first or early second-round pick. Reports from Chiefs camp indicate Rice has fully recovered from a rare PLC knee injury, so I’m comfortable taking advantage of this temporary injury discount.
George Kittle has been one of my key targets since drafts opened this year. Even with his ADP climbing from the early fifth round into the mid-fourth, I remain ahead of the market with an overall ranking of 40th. The 49ers’ offensive landscape is undergoing notable changes: Brandon Aiyuk is recovering from a ligament injury and is likely to begin the season on the PUP list, Christian McCaffrey has dealt with Achilles tendonitis, and Deebo Samuel has been traded. Rookie Ricky Pearsall had a quiet debutseason, and the team hasn’t made any major additions to offset the production they’ve lost.
Kittle already finished as the TE1 in points per game last season, and with Deebo now out of the picture, there’s a real opportunity for increased volume. Historically, Kittle’s production has spiked in games without Deebo—something clearly illustrated in the Rotoviz table below.
Courtland Sutton had a career year in 2024, yet he finished as only the WR26 in points per game. Despite this, he’s currently being drafted as WR23. The Broncos’ offense is evolving with the addition of pass-catching tight end Evan Engram and the
selection of two Day 2 rookie picks—pass-catching running back RJ Harvey and wide receiver Pat Bryant. Given these changes, I have Sutton ranked as a mid-fifth-round pick and WR29.
Ryan Grub was let go as the Seahawks’ offensive coordinator due to his reluctance to commit to the run. Under Grub, Seattle had a 4% pass rate over expected (PROE) ranking 4th in the league and were also 4th in the league for neutral pass rate. The new offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, who comes over from the New Orleans Saints, brings a much different philosophy. The Saints ranked 26th in PROE at -5%, and were 30th in neutral pass rate. It’s clear the Seahawks are poised to lean heavily on the run this season.
This shift in strategy will largely hinge on improved play from the offensive line, which struggled mightily last year. Seahawks running backs were hit at the line a staggering 50% of the time, the highest rate in the league. To address this, Seattle drafted offensive lineman Grey Zabel in the first round and selected fullback Robbie Ouzts in the fifth round to bolster their running game.
What has flown under the radar is that Kenneth Walker, despite the team’s struggles running the ball, ranked 4th in the league in routes run per game and saw the 3rd most targets per game among all running backs last season. With the departure of DK Metcalf and the addition of an aging Cooper Kupp, the receiving competition has weakened. This could mean more opportunities for Walker in the passing game, even if the overall passing volume decreases.
Considering these factors, I have Kenneth Walker ranked as RB14, with a late 4th-round ADP, which represents value when he falls into the 5th round as per his ADP. With a greater emphasis on the run game, a potentially improved offensive line, and fewer mouths to feed in the passing game, Walker could see a notable uptick in opportunities this season.
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