By Mike Bland @TheFFOffice
Despite the New York Jets’ latest season of turmoil, Garrett Wilson quietly etched his name into franchise history, becoming the first Jet to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first three seasons. Yet for fantasy managers, Wilson’s career-best 101 catches and 1,104 yards in 2024 felt bittersweet, his WR21 finish in points per game (PPG) left many wanting more, especially after investing a late first-round fantasy pick.
Throughout his career, Wilson has consistently commanded a solid share of targets, posting a 23.6% targets per route run (TPRR)—a respectable mark, especially considering the lack of high-end competition for looks in the Jets’ receiving corps. Even after the arrival of Davante Adams last season, Wilson maintained a healthy 21.3% TPRR, underscoring his role as a focal point in the offense.
However, the real concern lies in what he’s done with those opportunities. Wilson’s career yards per route run (YPRR) sits at 1.69—a figure he matched again in 2024. For context, top-tier receivers typically post a YPRR north of 2.0, suggesting that while Wilson is getting open and seeing targets, the efficiency just hasn’t been there.
While Yards Per Route Run is a valuable measure of receiver efficiency, it’s not solely a wide receiver stat,i t’s also heavily influenced by quarterback performance. A receiver’s YPRR depends on both his ability to get open and the quality of the passes he receives. Since Wilson joined the Jets in 2022, the team’s quarterbacks have delivered catchable balls on just 76% of their throws, with only 65% deemed on target. Notably, Aaron Rodgers was a significant outlier last year, posting an 80% catchable throw rate and a 72% on-target rate, the best Wilson has seen in his career. These numbers highlight how inconsistent quarterback play has limited Wilson’s efficiency, making it difficult to reach the elite YPRR marks posted by top receivers
With Aaron Rodgers no longer under center, Garrett Wilson will now be catching passes from his former Ohio State teammate, Justin Fields. While the reunion brings some familiarity, Fields’ track record as a passer is less encouraging for Wilson’s outlook. Over his career, Fields has delivered a catchable ball on just 75% of his throws and has an on-target rate of 64%, both noticeably lower than the marks Rodgers posted last season (80% catchable, 72% on-target). This drop-off in passing accuracy could make it harder for Wilson to match last year’s production, even with a strong target share
Given the likely downgrade at quarterback from Rodgers to Fields, it’s hard to justify Wilson’s current draft price as the WR15 and 30th overall pick on Sleeper. Fields has yet to prove he can consistently deliver accurate passes at the NFL level, and with the Jets’ offense in transition under a new coaching staff, Wilson faces more uncertainty than upside at this cost. While his target volume should remain strong, the expected dip in efficiency makes him a risky investment in the early rounds, there are better options available in his range, so I’m passing on Wilson at this ADP. I have him ranked as WR22, 42nd overall
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